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The same advice goes for taking ‘even money’ when you have a blackjack with a dealer showing an Ace upcard. It’s easy to think that you might as well ‘get something’ out of the blackjack and take the even money. What you’ve essentially done is make an insurance bet without even knowing it–and playing in to the same 7.4% house edge. Insurance is taken far too often. Remain informed about its lack of tactical advantage or logic before playing. And besides, if you take insurance every now and then just because you have a hunch, you are playing on instinct, which is a dangerous method of play in blackjack, as you are abandoning basic blackjack strategy. We can play our hand.

1. Should You Ever Get Insurance In Blackjack For Real
2. Should You Ever Get Insurance In Blackjack Real Money
3. Should You Ever Get Insurance In Blackjack Winnings

Anyone who’s read a reasonably good post about basic strategy in blackjack knows that you should never take insurance. It’s a sucker bet.

But sometimes casino dealers will confuse players by offering them “even money.” That’s just another way of offering insurance to the player.

The selling point of even money in blackjack is that you’re going to win no matter what. This post explains the fallacy behind thinking that insurance (or even money) is a good idea when playing blackjack.

How Even Money Works in Blackjack

Even money works when you’ve been dealt a natural, a two-card hand that totals 21. Such a hand is also called a blackjack, and it pays off at 3:2 in most games.

There’s one catch to having a natural. If the dealer also has a blackjack, it’s a push. When the dealer has an ace showing as the face-up card, you get the opportunity to place an insurance bet. They’ll often refer to this as taking “even money.”

If you have $100 in action and agree to take even money, the dealer will pay you $100 and take your cards before looking at her hand to see if she has a blackjack, too.

This seems like a good idea. After all, if you turn down the even money, and the dealer flips over a blackjack, you lose your $100.

On the other hand, if you decline even money, you win $150 on your $100 bet. Which is the better deal?

It’s about how much you win or lose in the long run.

To really understand whether even money makes sense, you need to look at how often the dealer will win or lose and how much you’ll win on average every time.

Decisions and Consequences in This Blackjack Situation

Let’s simplify this for a minute. You have two choices. You can take even money and win $100. Or you can decline even money, winning either $150 or facing a push.

It should be obvious why declining even money makes sense, because when you push, you don’t lose any money. You just get your original bet returned to you.

How often will the dealer have a blackjack?

This varies based slightly on how many decks are in use, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the dealer will have a blackjack only 30% of the time (this is really close to the actual number). 70% of the time, you’ll win 3:2 on your bet.

Let’s play this situation out 100 times in a row.

• Player A takes even money, which means he wins $100 on all 100 hands, or $10,000.
• Player B declines even money, which means he wins $150 on 70 hands, or $10,500.

Obviously, declining even money results in more wins in the long run.

What’s the Difference Between Even Money and Insurance?

Insurance is a side bet that the dealer has a 10 as the hole card. You can only place this bet when the dealer has an ace showing face-up, and the wager for this must always be half of the original wager size. If you bet $100, your insurance bet must always be $50.

If the dealer does have a blackjack, you get paid off at 2:1 for your insurance bet, which means it pays off at $100.

You don’t need to have a blackjack to place an insurance bet. You can take insurance with any total versus the dealer’s face-up card. If you have any total other than 21, you lose your original bet against the dealer.

But since insurance pays off at 2:1, you’ll wind up breaking even on that action.

So basically, even money is just an insurance bet that you can only make when you have a blackjack. When you take even money, though, you lose your opportunity to get the 3:2 payoff.

You don’t have to put up the additional bet, because the casino has just subtracted that $50 from your payoff for your hand.

Insurance is available any time the dealer has an ace showing, but even money is only available when the dealer has an ace showing and you have a blackjack.

There’s An Exception to Every Rule

Not every blackjack game in every casino offers 3:2 payouts for a blackjack. In some games in some casinos, the payout for a blackjack is only 6:5.

You should NEVER play in such a game, because it gives the house an edge almost 1.4% higher than it would have if it paid the standard amount.

But if you ignore that advice and choose to play in such a game, the even money bet suddenly makes sense.

Here’s why. You still have the 30% probability that the casino will have a blackjack. So, now, you’re looking at winning $120 approximately 70 times out of 100, or $8400.

But if you take even money, you’ll win $100 every time for $10,000 in winnings. In a 6:5 blackjack game, even money is a GREAT bet.

The problem is that it doesn’t come up often enough to make up for what it does to the house edge. A good blackjack game might have a house edge of around 0.4% if you play with perfect basic strategy.

Convert that to 1.8%, which is what the 6:5 payout does and, suddenly, that great game becomes pretty mediocre. And that 1.8% accounts for the even money proposition, too.

Conclusion

The basic blackjack strategy should inform your every decision in blackjack, but the correct basic strategy varies based on the rules in place.

The differences between insurance and even money and when it’s appropriate to place such a bet are great examples of this.

Do you ever take even money when it’s available at the casino? If so, do you think this post might have changed your mind about that?

Let me know what you think in the comments.

Nowadays, there are many different types of insurance one can buy – there is life insurance, car insurance, travel insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and liability insurance. You can even buy insurance in gambling establishments whenever you take a seat at one of their blackjack tables.

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3. $500
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The latter is a type of proposition bet in blackjack that has been the subject of hot debates for decades. Few are bold enough to argue in favor of taking insurance but the vast majority of blackjack experts recommend you to refrain from ever making this bet. Let’s take a closer look at what insurance in blackjack is, how is it identical to the blackjack even-money payout, and why you should avoid both of them if you are a basic strategy player.

How Blackjack Insurance Works

Should You Ever Get Insurance In Blackjack For Real

Blackjack players are offered insurance whenever the dealer’s exposed card is an Ace. This is an optional proposition wager which is treated separately from your original bet. When you buy insurance, you are practically betting your dealer has a ten-value card in the hole next to their Ace for a blackjack.

You can insure any two-card hand against a dealer blackjack by betting up to half of your original wager. The chips for the insured bets are placed within the semicircular stripe that runs across the table and reads “Insurance Pays 2 to 1”. There are two possible scenarios when you take insurance.

If the dealer indeed has a blackjack and you do not, you lose your original stake but win the insurance bet at casino odds of 2 to 1, i.e. you end up breaking even for this round. Provided that the dealer does not have a ten-value card in the hole, you lose the insurance bet and play on your hand continues as usual.

Blackjack Insurance Additional TipsLet’s see how buying insurance works with a concrete example. We assume you have wagered $20 on your original hand, which is not a natural, and the dealer exposes an Ace. You want to protect yourself against a potential dealer blackjack and decide to accept insurance so you post an additional $10 bet on top of your initial $20.

The dealer peeks under their hole card and it turns out it is indeed a ten-value card giving them a blackjack. You lose the initial $20 you have staked on your hand but win another $20 from your insurance bet. You break even, i.e. you neither win nor lose money on this round. Had you not insured your hand, you would have been $20 down.

Is Taking Insurance Worth It?

Some players argue in favor of insurance and the basic premise of their argument is that you lose your entire initial bet if you do not insure your hand as opposed to breaking even when you accept insurance.

This “rationalization” is a load of bosh. Casino operators themselves want you to believe they are doing you a favor by allowing you to insure yourself against a possible dealer blackjack. Some dealers are even instructed to advise players on accepting insurance.

The truth of the matter is you are insuring nothing. What you are doing with this side bet is wagering the dealer has a ten-value card in the hole. This has nothing to do with boosting the odds of your original bet but it has everything to do with decreasing your long-term expected value and here is why.

Suppose you are playing a six-deck game where the ratio of non-ten cards to ten-value cards is 216 to 96. The six decks have just been reshuffled, the dealer exposes an Ace at the start of the first round, and offers you to buy insurance. Provided that we do not take into consideration the composition of your starting two-card total, the ratio of non-ten-value cards to ten-value cards is now 215 to 96 because one of the Aces has already left the shoe.

Therefore, if you insure your hand for a dollar 311 times, you will incur losses of $215 because the dealer’s hole card will not be a ten-value one 215 times. The other 96 times the dealer will have a ten-value card in the hole so you will win 96 * $2 for a total of $192. It follows that $311 worth of insurance side bets is equal to net losses of $215 – $192 = $23.

Thus, insurance puts you at a massive disadvantage of (-$23 / $311) *100 = -7.39% which means the house holds an edge of nearly 7.40% with this side bet. No wonder dealers are recommending patrons to insure their hands!

Taking Insurance Additional TipsWhat if we introduce your starting two cards into the equation? Let’s imagine your hand consists of two non-ten-value cards like 6 and 2 for a total of 8 while the dealer’s upcard is an Ace at the start of the first round.

You are again playing at a six-deck blackjack table, which is to say the ratio of non-ten-value cards to ten-value cards in the shoe is 213 to 96 because three non-ten cards have already been removed (the dealer’s Ace, a 6, and a 2).

The shoe now contains only 309 cards so you will lose a dollar 213 out of 309 times and win $2 * 96 for a profit of $192. So $309 worth of $1 insurance bets results in net losses of $213 – $192 = $21. This puts you at a disadvantage of (-$21 / $309) * 100 = -6.80%. There is a slight improvement in the odds but you are still losing lots of money by buying insurance.

Some people argue you must insure only pat hands (like hard 20 and naturals) and decline insurance when you have bad hands like hard 12 or hard 13. Let’s put this argument to rest with our last example where some of the face cards are removed from the shoe at the first round of play. Your starting hand is a pair of Queens against the dealer’s Ace.

Out of 309 cards left, you have 94 ten-value cards and 215 non-ten-value cards because one of the Aces has been removed. If you take insurance for $1 309 times under these circumstances, you end up losing $215 and winning 94 * $2 = $188. The net loss you incur after placing $309 worth of $1-dollar insurance bets on a pat 20 stands at $27. This puts you at a disadvantage of (-$27 / $309) * 100 = -8.73%.

It turns out insuring “good” hands is costlier than insuring “bad” ones because some of the ten-value cards that can help the dealer make a blackjack are already out of play. No matter how we beat about the bush, insurance is a bad bet and as such, should be altogether avoided.

But There Are Exceptions to Any Rule

If you take the time to examine a basic strategy chart closely, you will surely notice one strange phenomenon. The correct plays for splitting, hitting, standing, doubling, and surrendering against all possible dealer cards are listed while insurance is strangely absent from the chart. Why is that?

The reason is simple – basic strategy players should never take insurance because it is a negative-expectation bet in the long term. The odds of winning with this wager are slimmer than the odds the casino pays you at. Of course, there are exceptions to all rules, including this one because the insurance bet is susceptible to advantage-play techniques such as card counting.

Card counters keep track of the ratio of ten-value to non-ten-value cards that remain in the shoe or deck. This gives them the opportunity to identify the situations in which insurance becomes a positive-expectation bet. When the remaining ten-value cards outnumber the non-ten-value cards, a card counter is more likely to insure their hands against a dealer blackjack.

Additional ExceptionsConsider the following situation where you are playing a pitch game which uses a single deck containing 52 cards in total. During the first round after the dealer reshuffles, you take a look at your starting hand and see it consists of two small cards, say 6-3. You also manage to catch a glimpse of the hand of the other player sitting at the table and see it also consists of two small cards, 4-5. Your dealer is showing an Ace.

This means 5 cards with a value other than ten are no longer in play and the deck is now left with 47 cards in total. The odds of the dealer having a blackjack are now 31 to 16 because we have 31 non-ten-value cards and 16 ten-value cards. Respectively, the implied probability of you winning your insurance bet is 1 in 47, which corresponds to a likelihood of 2.13%.

After making $47 bets (of $1 each) worth of insurance, you will lose $31 and win 16 * $2 = $32.You have a net profit of $1 obviously while the house is at a slight disadvantage in this case, which is equal to $1/$47 * 100 = 2.13%. Insurance becomes a positive-expectation bet under these circumstances.

The Blackjack Even-Money Payout

The even-money payout is offered when players obtain a blackjack and the dealer exposes an Ace. Most inexperienced gamblers get confused when this happens and often end up asking fellow patrons or the dealer for advice. Should they accept the even-money payout or should they decline? And of course, the dealer would always recommend them to accept even money because this way, they will not lose anything during this round.

Should You Ever Get Insurance In Blackjack Real Money

This is a bad piece of advice which you should never take. Here is the thing – the even-money payout is basically the same thing as insurance with a few tiny differences. The first difference is that this is a possible option only when the player has a blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace. Also, if you accept even money, the dealer would pay you out before he or she peeks under their hole card for a blackjack, unlike winning insurance bets which are paid after the peek.

The Even-Money Payout is Insurance in Disguise

Insurance and even money are the two sides of one and the same coin. Let’s take a look at a few examples to see why. In the first scenario, you insure your blackjack for $10 but the dealer also has a natural. The two blackjacks push, so you end up winning $20 in net profits.

In the second scenario, you again decide to accept insurance but it turns out the dealer does not have a natural. You lose your $10 insurance bet but the blackjack earns you $30 (1.5 times your initial $20 bet) for a net profit of $20.

The third possible situation you can find yourself in is when you decline insurance but the dealer also ends up having a natural. The two blackjacks push again and you neither lose nor win anything.

And finally, we have the situation where you decline buying insurance and the dealer does not have a ten-value card in the hole. In this case, you earn $30 in net profits plus your initial $20 stake. It follows that if you always accept insurance on your blackjacks, you inevitably end up winning even money whether or not the dealer also has a natural.

By offering you even money before the dealer peeks for a blackjack, casinos simply spare you the hassles of insuring your hand. Inexperienced players reason accepting even money is a good alternative because if they decline and the dealer also ends up with a blackjack, the two naturals will push, i.e. they will not earn any payout.

They seem to believe a profit of one base-bet unit is better than no profit at all. What they fail to understand is that if they decline the even-money payout (or insurance for that matter) and the dealer does not have a ten-value card in the hole (which is more probable because some ten-value cards have already been removed from the shoe/deck), they miss out on the lucrative opportunity to earn 1.5 times their initial wager.

When you receive a natural in a six-deck game against a dealer’s Ace, the dealer’s hole card will be a ten-value one 95 out of 309 times, which corresponds to implied probability of 95 / 309 * 100 = 30.7%. It follows that when you insure your hand, you end up winning even money 30.7% of the time.

If you decline insurance, 30.7% of the time your blackjack will push with that of the dealer so you neither win nor lose anything. The remaining 69.3% of the time, you stand a better chance of winning 1.5 times your initial bet.

Should You Ever Get Insurance In Blackjack Winnings

Therefore, the probability of you winning 1.5 times your bet when declining the even-money payout is higher than that of pushing with the dealer. You earn 1.5 * 69.3% = $1.03 per every dollar wagered on average each time you decline even money.

The bottom line is basic strategy players should never insure their hands or accept even-money payouts on their naturals. Blackjack is difficult enough to beat without players pouring some of their profits back into the casinos’ coffers.